Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
